Initial Response to FOX’s 2012-13 Fall schedule

I’m sure this is just me, but the FOX schedule isn’t anything surprising. Bones has been doing surpringly well on Mondays, and changing it back to Thursdays would mean it would follow A.I. or X Factor, a spot that is well-placed by Glee. The show that follows Bones is new drama The Mob Doctor. A regular doctor, to save the life of her brother, becomes a mob’s doctor as well. Interesting concept, but let’s see how it looks like when the trailer comes out. 

Tuesday is a little weird, as I know their scheduling strategy of hammocking the new comedy Ben and Kate with Raising Hope and New Girl. But I would have switched it. Put New Girl to start the night (it’s your #1 new comedy, start the night big). Ben and Kate doesn’t seem all that interesting and The Mindy Project may be a little better, but not by much. To be fair, I have to watch their trailers before I can make an opinion. But so far, not very interesting new comedies. 

Wednesday and Thursday are no surprises with the X Factor (Fall) and American Idol (Mid-season), and Glee following both on Thursdays. Friday is my constant surprise that Fringe survives each season. However, Touch’s move to Friday was anticipated and we’ll see how long it’ll last on the dead day. 

So really, new drama and comedies aren’t too impressive. However, FOX is the #1 network in key demographics. Why would they change that much?

 

How Close Was It: The 2011-12 Predictions Officially Scored

So here we are at last. The NBC Schedule of 2012-13 year. And man, NBC is…well…NBC.

I’m not blown away by the new schedule. There are a few interesting moves that I’ll complain about, and then the new shows are very hit a miss for me (they haven’t released the trailers for the show yet, but they will eventually). 

But this is less about the schedule and more about the predictions I made a year ago. I made estimates and guess at where certain shows would end up. You can find what my predictions were on my article about the 2012-12 NBC Fall Schedule. It’s interesting going back and finding what I was right and wrong about. I’m a ref, I want to make sure that I’m going to be correct. This year, I can say that for the most part I was right about a couple NBC shows. However, I was also grossly wrong on others. So how close was I?

(Yes, I understand we have not included the season finales of some shows, but I’m calling it early). 

I was right about:

Harry’s Law: I predicted a huge decline in viewership and ratings because of NBC’s placement against highly-rated competitors. And boy, was I right. Though it’s viewership took a hit, it was the huge drop in key demographic ratings that were the show’s demise. 

Up All Night: I predicted 4.1 million viewers on average. It was 4.3. It was barely renewed, and I predicted it would be risky. I’m proud of this predict. 

Grimm: It did better than Chuck in viewership and ratings (called it) and finished its 1st season run (called it). I said 4 million viewers on average and it did 5 (I was…a little off). But now, the series has a very questionable 2nd season. Will the success continue? Are there enough stories?

Are you There, Vodka?: I said it’d be done before it finished its run. The show was ug. 100% right on that guess. 

Whitney: I predicted an average of 4.2 million average and would be on the bubble. It was 4.5 and was on the bubble. Nailed it. 

Honorable Mentions: L&O: SVU (predicted decline, went from 8.8 to 6.83); Community (predicted decline, went from 4.48 to 3.6); Bent (said it was horrible, and it was)

I was wrong about: 

Prime Suspects: I really thought women would appeal to the lead character. Maybe it should have been on Tuesday nights or Wednesday nights. But honestly, I was completely off. I predicted it would be NBC’s 2nd best new series. It wasn’t even close. It was canned before it even ended. 

The Playboy Club: I hated the show, but I really though NBC would stick to its gut and keep it for the season. But there was so much backlash, and not enough “tastiness” for men. So it floundered worse than I thought. It’s funny I made the comparison to Pan Am…and it also got cancelled. 

Free Agents: Even when the show was going, I still found it hilarious. But not the rest of America. I seriously felt that that entire timeslot on Wednesday was where show went to die this year for NBC. However, that said, I predicted it was going to be the NBC’s best comedy. I weep at that statement. 

Awake: I thought it would have problems getting people to watch in the second season, and have a good 1st. Boy, I was so wrong. It was NBC’s 3rd best new drama, as opposed to my prediction of 1st. Grimm and Smash did pretty well, almost two times better on average. 

30 Rock: I thought it would stay pretty consistent. Instead, it lost a little over 1 million viewers, thus the reason NBC is giving it one last season. 

Honorable mentions: Fear Factor (I seriously thought it would stay), Chuck (I was right about the increasing part. But the increase was from the season premiere on. Overall, viewership was a series low), Parenthood (I thought increase, they were decrease), The Voice (I though The Voice would be more effective than I thought this year. But I thought the same thing about The X Factor. Forgot about “singing competition” fatigue)

So what’s my record? 8-9. Not bad for a first year. 

I’ll be making my predictions on the NBC schedule once the trailers come out. Can’t really determine too much from the two clips I can see so far. Right now, I saw the trailer for Revolution. So now, it’s a Western of the future? I’m impressed…but not impressed either. Not sure of its long-term story arc…or even its short-term…But we’ll see. 

 

I’m Back…sort of

Hey Everyone,

Did you miss me? Probably not.

Last summer, it was crazy! I tried to stay up with TV news and tried to write about it. However…school started. And alas, I had to retire the whistle this year.

But with school over and Upfronts coming up, I couldn’t resist a come back.

So here I am, ready to weigh in on some of the decisions of these networks. And let me tell ya, the Ref has been out way too long.

Like come on, NBC. Whose idea was it to cancel Harry’s Law and not Whitney? How about Up All Night? When you put on the show, you were getting Kathy Bates: OF COURSE YOUR VIEWERS WILL BE OLD?! You think Blue Bloods at CBS is ranking higher in key demos? Sure they have 2 million more viewers, but they’re CBS. Take it one network at a time.

And HEY, FOX: It’s time to let Fringe go. Of course, I’m okay with moving it to FX. How cool would that be, placing it right after American Horror Story? But not the point. The ratings are too low, especially with Grimm and Primetime (ABC)…PRIMETIME beating you weekly in the same timeslot (CSI:NY has more viewers, but lower ratings).

Yes, CBS, you don’t escape easily. You may be the #1 most watched network, but you also let Rules of Engagement go on for way too long. And also, there is something admirable about having a consistent schedule. But it’s like you’re not even trying anymore! At least NBC is actively looking for the next Friends or Seinfeld. Instead, you’re running your CSIs to the ground! Find the next CSI without another spin-off.

And of course, ABC. I love Happy Endings, but those last few episodes tail-dived in ratings performance. Need to have a close eye on that one. Plus, look at this comparisons: Cougar Town has on average 2-3 million less viewers than Happy Endings, but faces American Idol. If you swap Happy Endings and Cougar Town’s timeslots, Happy Endings would be significantly worse. Now moving Cougar Town doesn’t seem so smart, does it? Plus, doesn’t anyone feel that TBS would be more fitted with Penny’s antics (H.E.) than Jules’s (C.T.)? I sure do. Plus, Don’t Trust the B—- in Apt 23 is very well suited for Wednesday Night comedies and would fit very well at the 9:30 slot (Happy Endings slot). PLUS, Happy Endings would be a nice “earlier” slot around 8/8:30 on TBS for Men at Work or….see….see what I’m doing? I’m doing this before I even start these articles and I told myself I wouldn’t.

But you’ll start to see this stuff fairly soon. I’m back. At least for the summer. Stay up with me on Twitter (@mediatvref) and ALSO like me on Facebook (www.facebook.com/mediatvref). Especially FB, I’d like to get into some arguments discussions with all of you.

Let’s ref the networks. Happy Upfronts, everyone.

 

The 2011-2012 NBC Mid-Season Schedule

First of all…Happy New Year, everybody.

And I’m sure NBC is ready for a clean slate.

On November 14th, NBC announced its mid-season schedule. And I continue to ask myself why they make the decisions they do.

Fall 2011 has been almost a disaster. Two “slam dunk” dramas were cancelled within practically four aired episodes (Playboy Club & Prime Suspects). Free Agents is out the door, with Community not trailing too far behind. Chuck is facing its series finale very soon. NBC is running out of options fast. And yet, they still aren’t putting their best foots forward.

The Mid-Season schedule released a few familiar titles, and a few new ones; but ultimately, a good slew of shows are returning. However, though I’m a little disappointed, I’m also happy NBC has taking some good direction in their decision-making.

Mondays:

8pm: The Voice

What’s worse than putting a 2-hour A Capella competition on Mondays? Following that with another 2-hour singing competition. With Super Bowl high numbers, it’s be great. But the real question is can it surpass American Idol? People thought The X Factor could, and it wasn’t even close. Also, it’ll be interesting to see if people get tired of this singing thing. A.I., then Glee, then X Factor, then The Voice and Smash on one network? Too much.

10pm: Smash

What’s worse than a 2-hour singing competition? Following that with another singing show. I wonder if the strategy is to tire out the singing competition/shows. However, I feel that Smash comes at the best time. Not only are Glee fans wanting a more realistic “Glee”; people are also looking for another Spielberg production NOT a mirror of his previous work (e.g. Falling Skies [War of the Worlds]; Terra Nova [Jurassic Park]). I bash on the overload of singing, but perhaps Smash (so heavily highly acclaimed) will get by.

Tuesday:

8pm: The Biggest Loser

We know about this already. Good show, consistent ratings. I don’t think we’ll lose this show anytime soon.

10pm: Parenthood/Fashion Star (March 13th)

Parenthood was down from last year, but it will end with a decent run for its 3rd season, bouncing within a 5.2 million viewership, 2.0 rating consistently. Fashion Star will take over as the new reality show, looking for the next big brand of fashion. This will be the first attempt (to my knowledge) of bringing this type of show on primetime; and is slightly comparable to America’s Next Top Model. But that doesn’t impress me.

Wednesday:

8pm: Whitney

Everyone is HATING on this show, yet it’s the second highest rated show on NBC. Parks and Rec is funnier, just not as well known, and Community hits well with pop culture, but not in ratings. Whitney seems dry, and not as funny, yet it does so well; probably due to The Office following. But now it’s time to see its true colors How well will it do as a lead-in for…

8:30pm: Are you there, Chelsea?

I don’t think this show will do well…at all. Chelsea Handler can really only be handled on a cable-TV level; but as a network person, I’m not sure. When I see this, I see a very mini-Playboy Club. Not in taste, but in interest. Yes, Vodka. People like it. But just because the people drink it doesn’t mean that it will be watched by those who do…or those who don’t.

9pm: Rock Center with Brain Williams

What a random place to put this show. NBC stated that the early numbers were not worrysome to NBC because it had to grow an audience. And when they mean grow, they mean changing it to a different night and putting after a show that consists of an audience probably downing alcohol (e.g. young people who don’t care about hard hitting news packages). You’re also competing with American Idol. Other shows will have to deal with this, but a newsmagazine? Come. On. Poor planning on this one. No one wins. Suggestion: Have this show replace Dateline on Sundays. You don’t need Dateline twice.

10pm: L&O: SVU

It’s surprising to see that SVU has survived, staying between 7-9 million viewers against ABC surprise hit Revenge and ever-popular, but slowly dwindling CSI. However, that’s with Harry’s Law helping it a little. How will it do with a lower rating lead-in? Again…questionable decision.

Thursday:

8pm: 30 Rock

I’m glad it’s coming back. I’m just hoping the writing from last few seasons don’t. It needs to get better…soon.

8:30pm: Parks and Rec

It not only really needs the help from 30 Rock (since Community doesn’t really help), it also needs help in general. One of the most underrated shows on television is still just trending at 4 million viewers.

9pm: The Office

The most watched show on television deserves to be there. Yes, there’s no Steve Carell. But honestly, I don’t (really) miss him. Jim, Dwight, and Andy have done a good job keeping up the slack, plus Robert Calfiornia making Andy feel awkward is nice. We’re now a bit comfortable with Andy as manager and Andy-Erin’s relationship finally resurfaced at the end. Everyone else is kind of….ug. But it was like that before Michael left anyways. So the same ol’, same ol’. Nothing to complain about.

9:30pm: Up All Night

It’s been keeping up its own end of the deal by holding up the 8pm Wednesday slot against The X Factor and a following show getting canned. So it deserves a spot behind The Office to see how it fares compared to previous timeslot-owner Whitney. I’m sure whoever had the highest rating in this spot is guaranteed renewal, while the other is probably guaranteed cancellation.

10pm: The Firm

I’m going to say one thing, and only one thing about movies turned TV shows: Unless your name is Friday Night Lights, DO. NOT. DO IT. Now I predict if it’ll be better or worse than Prime Suspects. I say better…but not by much. However, I can’t say much until I see a preview clip, which hasn’t been released as of yet.

Friday:

8pm: Who Do You Think You Are?

Interesting show; not in danger to my knowledge

9pm: Grimm

The surprise hit has been doing very well, and though I predicted a good first season, I didn’t think this good. But it’s okay. The stories are actually really good. The drop for the second episode was only 500K viewers, which is nice for a drop. Hopefully it will continue to go strong on Friday nights. I like it so far.

10pm: Dateline NBC

Come on. Who didn’t see this coming?

Sunday:

7pm: Dateline NBC

Twice? Really?

8pm: Harry’s Law

Though it’s not 11 million viewers, competing against The X Factor, Criminal Minds, and Modern Family to get 7-8 million average is a heck of a good job. Though it’s really low on the P18-49, we kind of predicted that, considering it is Kathy Bates. The Sunday move is interesting, since it’ll be competing against very strong ABC freshmen Once Upon A Time (ironically similar numbers as Harry’s first year) and CBS’s Undercover Boss/Amazing Race, less competitive than Harry’s previous timeslot. It’ll be interesting to see what happens there. That’s an okay move by NBC, a good gamble to take.

9pm: Celebrity Apprentice

People really like this show. I don’t like celebrity, but hey: why talk trash about something that works? It’ll be different from the Desperate Housewife/The Good Wife demo.

Missing Shows: Community (heard it might be back in spring?), Bent, Awake (don’t understand why this wasn’t scheduled. Thursday. 10pm. Perfect timeslot for it.), BFFs, and Off The Rockers

 

Why NBC…why?

I just haven’t been able to put my head around the NBC fiasco.

Yes, Rome wasn’t built in a day, but let’s be honest. NBC has had problems one (Jeff Zucker) after another (Kevin Reilly) after a huge other (Ben Silverman) after another (Jeff Gaspin). Why NBC hasn’t figured out their problems is unreal, especially for a channel that has been dominance for two decades.

So what’s its problem? Is NBC even fixing its problems? Do they even know what their problems are? So far…not really. So here’s a list of problems I feel that NBC has to address, whether they have addressed them or not.

#1-Hiring from Within

For the last few NBC Entertainment Chairmen, they all had two things in common. 1) they thought they could get away with buying shows that were in-housed productions. Other networks do this as well (ABC does buy shows from ABC’s production house) but not to the extent of NBC during the early 2000s. But also, most of the chairmen (except Silverman) were promoted from within. From this, we can see that internal promotion has not done NBC well for the previous decade. So what can we do to fix it? Hire outside the firm. Which is what they did.

Robert Greenblatt

I introduce Robert Greenblatt, the former President of Entertainment at Showtime. Yes, his resume is pretty amazing from his tenure at the premium channel…no, seriously. Look them up. He’s actually done a pretty awesome job over there, which is why I was happy when NBC (well…really Comcast) announced him as the new chairman. However, guess who else developed amazing shows before their hirings? Ben Silverman and Jeff Gaspin. Both great producers of shows. Both not so great producers for NBC. Or maybe it’s a “Chairmen Curse”. Zucker left the chairmen position for a better position: starting his way towards becoming the CEO of NBC Universal. Kevin Reilly doesn’t miss his previous job: He’s now the President of FOX Entertainment, and has enjoyed being the #1 network in the prime demographics. Ben Silverman left the great television position to start his own company. So maybe it’s not the people….but the network? Doubt it…but it’s worth investigating later.

I have confidence that Greenblatt will turn the ship around; but so far, he hasn’t impressed anyone with this schedule which is already falling apart (longer than Gaspin).

#2-Setting Shows Up for Failure

Every time the new fall schedule gets released, I feel that all the networks start strong with their best shows in the fall (unless you’re FOX because you don’t have enough room, or NBC when you have a Super Bowl). And the last few years, I’ve always been dumbfounded by the scheduling decisions at NBC. But this year took the cake:

a) Why should ‘Prime Suspects’ be put at the previously-popular Thursday 10pm slot? And whose idea was it to put it on everyday (did Jay Leno teach us nothing?) And why isn’t Awake, a highly-acclaimed new drama, being broadcast right now when you have Prime Suspects being played practically every day? This isn’t Lifetime! This isn’t Showtime! We have other options! We have a ton of shows in mid-season to REPLACE canned shows.

b) ‘Free Agents’ would have been fine if you had put it on Thursdays. People know Christina Applegate and Will Arnett from ‘Up All Night’. No one knows Hank Azaria and Katheryn Hahn. It would have fit somewhere in that Thursday 9:30 slot (‘Whitney’ would have been a good mid-season replacement). Free Agents did not fit between Up All Night and ‘Harry’s Law’ (guarantee you that’s why Harry’s Law is so hurt right now).

 

c) I like ‘The Voice’. But after watching ‘The X Factor’ falling short of expectations, and with ‘American Idol’ returning this spring, I see singing competitions “overload” and it’s tiring audiences out. NBC should have captured that falling X Factor audience with The Voice, perhaps switched it with ‘The Sing-Off’. I know you have the Super Bowl…but 3 weeks later, people will be tired of singing competitions, even if it does beat American Idol. However, this judgement is forgivable. The Super Bowl is the Super Bowl.

d)  Oh yeah…and I called that Monday 10pm was the worst spot to put ‘The Playboy Club’…not that the whole show was a bad idea or anything. So NBC…hasn’t really learned anything on that end.

Extra) Betty White? Vodka; It’s Me, Chelsea? Is your selection committee just giving up on quality?

The only real things they did right was prolonging ‘Smash’ until mid-season and the ‘Biggest Loser’/'Parenthood’s timeslot. And I’ll toss them ‘Chuck’ and ‘Grimm’.

#3-Not Hitting the Panic Button

Many NBC executive have said they aren’t worried about the ratings. They know they’re in a bad spot and they’re working on getting a solution.

Bull. Crap.

It’s time to push that red button, vamp it up to Defcon 1, and start spending some grand amount of cash for great products. CBS can’t be the only network pumping out great hits consistently. I mean, think about it. CBS cancelled a show (How to Be A Gentlemen) with over 8 million viewers. NBC should kill for a half-hour with 8 million viewers. CBS bought Medium off NBC’s hands and could possibly return the favor. But no…NBC doesn’t want to do that. They aren’t ready to push that button. I seriously want Matthew Broderick to put on his old computer, hack into NBC, and “accidentally” start a war game within that company.

Seriously Matt....put NBC to DefCon 1.

They need to wake up, because if they aren’t gonna panic when they’re close to Univision in ratings OR when they hit the lowest ratings period for a Thursday Night in its NETWORK’S HISTORY, nothing will….well, maybe when CW passes them in viewership.

#4-The Internet

In business, it’s a big deal to be the first at something in an industry. The iPod was the first popular (and functionally sound) mp3 player. Windows was the first operating system. NBC had the first late night show, the first show with the format of “about nothing”, the first network to put their comedies on the same night. That/’s why they’ve been good for years. But they were also the first to put their shows online. And that’s where the problem lies.

I don’t think its something that can be fixed; but to NBC, perhaps Hulu possibly going out of business is a good thing for the network. Hulu is a joint venture with FOX, NBC, and ABC. However, CBS is not on Hulu. They do have some of their stuff on their own website, but not a lot. But notice, CBS has the least internet presence and is America’s “most watched network”. FOX, which puts their content up a week after its aired, is second place among the networks. ABC is similar to NBC in that it appears on Hulu the next day after air; however, guess who was the first to introduce this new direction of media: NBC. And look at it, standing ugly in dead last. So perhaps the internet was a huge disadvantage for the three joint networks, especially for the network that started it all.

Summary

Overall, I find it interesting that NBC has a ton of problems, and they their thinking of the quick fixes, trying to milk out the most amount of sales possible. At least it seems that way (I mean, seriously, Prime Suspects everyday ain’t fooling anybody, the show isn’t that good). Greenblatt doesn’t have to clean NBC quickly. He could take the Les Moonves approach and fix things gradually. However, CBS was still 3rd overall when it was struggling, and not competing against a Spanish-Speaking network (even if NBC does have some ownership of that network). It’s time for Greenblatt to start cleaning house now, immediately, before NBC hits an all-time low in everything.

Executives for years have said they’re okay. Well, Mr. Greenblatt:

It’s time to go DefCon 1.

NBC...don't get nuked.

 

NBC’s New Shows Get Marketing Face-lift

How convenient.

Yesterday, NBC released promotional posters for their new series this fall, consisting of The Sing-Off, Free Agents Prime Suspects, Whitney, Grimm, and The Playboy Club. Here they are, custody of The Hollywood Reporter:

 

The 2011-2012 NBC Fall Schedule

[Click on NBC Logo for 2011 NBC Fall Schedule]

When you are in last place, they say the only way you can go is up. NBC has proven there are two ways: You can either go up or stay put. And stay put they did.

Not only did NBC stay in last place this past TV season among the major networks, but they also lost the most viewership among the network, losing over 13% of their viewership from the previous season, comparable to the 5-8% from the other networks (though NBC did have the Olympics the previous season).

So if they’re so bad, why don’t they just cancel the bad shows? Well, a majority of those shows were cancelled. This season, new dramas Chase, Law & Order: Los Angeles, Outlaw, The Cape, The Event, and Undercovers were all cancelled. New comedies Friends with Benefits, Love Bites, Perfect Couples, Outsourced, and the Paul Reiser Show were all cancelled. But the embarrassing part is not the multiple cancellations, but how they got cancelled. Perfect Couples, Paul Reiser, L&O:LA, The Cape, Outlaw, and Undercovers were cancelled well before they finished their runs. Love Bites and Friends with Benefits never even came out of the gate (both premiering during the summer, well after they were cancelled). Of the 14 new series developed last season, only 2 are returning. Harry’s Law is the only scripted series from the pack returning with impressive numbers, and surprise hit The Voice, the music competition, will premiere after the Super Bowl.

So, as I called it then, (though I believed The Event was going to make it, and thought Harry’s Law wasn’t), last season did not go well for NBC. This year, it looks no different. I see 12 new scripted shows, and probably only a few seem to have potential. Very, very few. But on the positive side, I believe they’ll be more new series picked up this season then last season. But that isn’t saying much.

We will start off by analyzing the current returning series by genre, first comedies, then dramas. Then, I’ll analyze the new series. (Rankings presented by Nielsen through Deadline).

2010-11 NBC Rankings (for Scripted Series in P18-49 Ratings)

Rank	Show (^: cancelled)
#1	The Office
#2	Parenthood
#3	Law and Order: SVU
#4	Parks and Recreation
#5	30 Rock
#6	Outsourced^
#7	The Event^
#8	Harry’s Law
#9	Law and Order: LA^
#10	Community
#11	The Cape^
#12	Chuck
#13	Chase^
#14	Undercovers^
#15	Perfect Couples^
#16	Outlaw^
#17	The Paul Reiser Show^
#18	Friday Night Lights^

Returning Comedies

The Office

Rank Among Total Shows (out of 141): T11th

Rank Among NBC Shows (out of 18): 1st

Rank Among Timeslot (out of 4): 2nd

Predict: Steady Decline in Viewership & Ratings

Without Steve Carell, The Office won’t be the same. Neither will the ratings. The Office is NBC’s #1 show with prime demographics (P18-49). I agree that The Office should not have ended (since NBC needs them), but when your best show isn’t even the most watched in its slot, it’s hurtful. However, with CBS switching CSI out of the 9:00pm slot for a new show (Person of Interest), it may give The Office an edge. However, I still anticipate a fall in overall ratings and viewership.

Parks and Recreation

Rank Among Total Shows: T53rd

Rank Among NBC Shows: 4th

Rank Among Timeslot: 4th

Predict: Slight Decline in Viewership; Constant Ratings

The show has gotten funnier and funnier as the years go on, but P&R hasn’t gotten the recognition it has deserved, including an internet blow-up when fans called foul that Nick Offerman (a.k.a Ron Swanson) didn’t get an Emmy nomination. But P&R can never catch a break. Community isn’t really a great lead-in (no offense), The X-Factor (FOX) heads into its last half-hour, and Charlie’s Angels (new for ABC) has a spark. Despite the advantage of having a rookie comedy on CBS during its spot (and not looking great), I predict that P&R will rank lower in viewership this season, despite being a better show. However, on the plus side, I don’t think NBC cares about ratings at this point. By season’s end, the show will be halfway to syndication, and NBC will probably like to keep it going. Plus, their situation doesn’t warrant eliminating more shows until some of their new shows actually do well.

30 Rock

Rank Among Total Shows: T53rd

Rank Among NBC Shows: 5th

Rank Among Timeslot: 3rd (out of 3)

Predict: Consistent Viewership & Ratings

As P&R has increased slowly over past year, 30 Rock has slowly decreased. It’s quick and witty jokes are now missed punchlines, and its move to 10pm didn’t help either. Don’t get me wrong, it’s still funny. But it’s not as funny as previous years. Regardless, with rumors that this may be the last season and Tina Fey increasingly doing other projects, I look for the ratings to remain constant, perhaps a slight drop. However, if word gets out that this indeed is the last season, look for a dramatic increase, followed by a sharp decrease. 30 Rock comes back at mid-season.

Community

Rank Among Total Shows: 81st

Rank Among NBC Shows: 4th

Rank Among Timeslot: 4th

Predict: Decline in Rankings & Viewership

Despite being the best at pop culture references on television and probably the most unpredictable cast on NBC, Community has for consecutive seasons just had enough to carry on. It might have to do with the show having Joel McHale or because the show is cheap to make or NBC Studios produces the show. Whichever it is, the show has barely decreased in viewership from its first season. I don’t know where to go with it, but I think Community will continue to drop unless something dramatic happens. X-Factor (FOX) and Big Bang Theory (CBS) won’t help matters at all, so we’ll probably be watching the last episodes of Community. I think at least one comedy will shine out and overtake Community.

Returning Dramas

Law and Order: SVU

Rank Among Total Shows: T50th

Rank Among NBC Shows: 3rd

Rank Among Timeslot: 3rd

Predict: Decline in Rankings & Viewership

Remember what I said for The Office. Reapply here for SVU. Christopher Meloni isn’t returning to SVU, Mariska Hargitay will be in fewer episodes, and B.G. Wong is headed to another NBC series (Awake). I can only see a decrease in viewership, with Meloni’s absence hurting the quality of the show. However, one could make the case that SVU is also now the only remaining Law and Order remaining, following the L&O and L&O:LA cancellations; so L&O fans will flock to this series. However, too much new stuff for the old dog to learn, if you ask me. I’m not calling a cancellation here (though matched against CSI makes it tempting), but look for NBC to ask Dick Wolf to wrap it up for a final season next year.

Parenthood

Rank Among Total Shows: T45th

Rank Among NBC Shows: 2nd

Rank Among Timeslot: 1st

Predict: Slight Increase in Ratings & Viewership

Parenthood has slightly increased in viewers and decreased in ratings; however for its timeslot, it does great in ratings and horrible in viewership. Parenthood, in my opinion, was great season one and…okay season two. This season, Parenthood will be playing against a new series on CBS (Unforgettable) and one of the highest rated shows on ABC (Body of Proof). I sense an increase in ratings, but Parenthood has to come up with something huge…and I think Amber’s accident for the season finale will do the trick.

Harry’s Law

Rank Among Total Shows: T63th

Rank Among NBC Shows: 8th

Rank Among Timeslot: 3rd (out of 3)

Predict: Steep Decline in Ratings & Viewership

The only scripted freshmen series returning for NBC will be done before it can do anything. For NBC, the series has been strong for viewership; but it was when Hawaii Five-O (CBS) and Castle (ABC) were its competitor and nothing on FOX. Now, insert the very highly-anticipated X-Factor on FOX, highly-rated Criminal Minds on CBS, and highly-”emmyed” Modern Family on ABC. All demographics that Harry’s Law fought for will be absent. Harry’s Law got hurt by this placement, and they may have already seen the best of the series.

Chuck

Rank Among Total Shows: T83rd

Rank Among NBC Shows: 11th

Rank Among Timeslot: 4th

Predict: Slight Increase in Viewership; Consistent on Ratings

Chuck’s last season will be interesting. I see an increase in viewers, but Chuck will still be fighting with Extreme Makeover, a higher-rated show in Kitchen Nightmares, and a new CBS show (new CBS show usually beat Chuck in viewership). Expect higher ratings, but a last place slot battle again.

New Comedies (Fall)

Free Agents

http://www.nbc.com/assets/video/widget/widget.html?vid=1327457
Predict: Renewed for 2nd Season, 5 million viewers; NBC’s highest new comedy

If there’s one comedy I would pick from the bunch that could have the potential to become the next Office (in popularity), it’s Free Agents. Without the shifty camera angles of Office and Parks, Free Agents still gives the environment that people have problems, and they try to help each other out. As far as I’ve seen, the jokes are spot on, the characters are relatable and funny, and the show has a premise that people can relate to as well. It may not exactly be water-cooler conversation, but it will be a show that will be fun watching. Too bad it’s placed on the worst spot ever: against Survivor and The X Factor. However, they begin a week before the X Factor, so maybe…maybe they’ll have a decent following. I predict ratings way higher than Community, but hurt because of their timeslot. I still think they’d be a way better show for 9:30 than Whitney…

Whitney

http://www.nbc.com/assets/video/widget/widget.html?vid=1327544
Predict: On the Bubble. 4.2 million viewers; NBC’s most potential new comedy

I just don’t know. I watched the preview once. I didn’t like it. I watched it a second time. I was okay with it. I watched it a third time. I chuckled. So I guess she has to grown on you for one to like the show. I think the show has potential, but the laugh track makes it somewhat annoying. I know that NBC used to be the king of comedy with their laugh-track shows (Friends, Seinfeld, Cheers, etc.), but laugh track shows only work on CBS now (for reasons I don’t know). Maybe it’s also because CBS only has laugh-track comedies while this will be the only laugh-track on NBC. But besides all that, I’m on the fence with Whitney. She may grow on me, but she’s not the funniest of the NBC bunch. I’d still take McHale over her. She’ll have to compete with Grey’s Anatomy (ABC) and Bones (FOX), which will not be an easy feat. Plus, another rookie series in the timeslot, Person of Interest (CBS) has been getting more buzz. She’s also producing another show on CBS (Two Broke Girls), potentially hurting her commitment. I’m on the fence. I say worse than Community, but close.

Up All Night

http://www.nbc.com/assets/video/widget/widget.html?vid=1327620
Predict: Toss-up; 4.1 millions viewers; risky

First, I’m very hesitate when it comes to down to Christina Applegate and Will Arnett. Applegate’s last good performance was Anchorman (film) but in TV was Married with Children. Arnett may have been awesome in Arrested Development, but since has failed at leading roles (with really good guest roles). So together, they can make or break the show. The jokes are hit and miss, and Maya Rudolph’s character is both great and already annoying at the same time. The show can be relatable in some areas, and others are just not. Some things are just irresponsible (for comedy, of course), but not as funny as an irresponsible Michael Scott. I think it’ll be a showdown between Whitney and Up All Night on which show will be more successful, and I want to say “so far” that Up All Night has it. But, I see less potential from Up All Night. I just see this as a one-family Modern Family, but more profane and less quirky.

New Dramas (Fall)

Grimm

http://www.nbc.com/assets/video/widget/widget.html?vid=1327541
Predict: Finish 1st-year run; questionable 2nd season; 4.0 million viewers

I’m intrigued. I see the show evolving, but I see few problems. How many Grimm stories are there? I think the premise is creative, and some people (Comic-Con fans, for example) will see that this show will be pretty awesome. But also, what’s the overall story arc? Is there an ultimate Grimm that needs to be defeated? An hour-packed series about a detective that sees things others does go along the lines of Medium (CBS, formerly NBC), so there’s been some tapped success there. But where I see potential for growth with stories of Little Red Riding Hood and so forth; I also see as weaknesses. I’m not sure it’ll benefit from its Friday night slot, up against CSI: NY and mystery-related Fringe. Also, NBC has done fantasy before (Merlin, Heroes), with Merlin not going very far and Heroes hitting dirt after a great 1st season. But I know that we’ll see a complete season. I don’t think it’ll be in danger of being cut off during the year. I do think it’ll do better than its lead-in Chuck, however.

Prime Suspects

http://www.nbc.com/assets/video/widget/widget.html?vid=1327543
Predict: Renewed 2nd season; NBC’s Best New Fall & 2nd Best New Series; 8.5 million viewers

I’m not okay with Prime Suspects taking over the coveted Thursday 10pm slot. I’m not okay with the premise of this show. I feel like the show came straight out of Lifetime (as opposed to England). But I think the show will be successful. There’s nothing like it during its timeslot (It’ll be tough with The Mentalist and Private Practice, but women will want to see it). I think it’ll make for an interesting show, and though I don’t like it taking such a historically great timeslot, the show (in my opinion) will do well here. I see this as the better version of just-cancelled Chase.

The Playboy Club

http://www.nbc.com/assets/video/widget/widget.html?vid=1327501
Predict: Complete season run; not be renewed; 7.5 million viewers

So, Man Men has turned NBC and ABC (Pan Am) into copycats. It only took them a few years. Okay, so take away all the negativity that comes from the word “Playboy” and just look at the show critically. It does look good. Now, saying that, it will tank. One reason is we’ll see the resurgence of parental controls on kids and perhaps, for the first times, husbands. Second reason is that affiliates will not be happy about this show preceding their newscasts. Already one affiliate dropped (but re-added) the show. Third reason is people will be offended, and don’t really want to be associated with watching the show. And lastly, the main reason people won’t watch this show is because when men find out that there’s no nudity, they’ll probably filter out. I think with the timeslot it has, it’ll start off well, but the hatred against it will convince NBC not to renew it. Plus, I see Arrested Development again, where advertisers don’t want to be associated with the product.

New Shows (Mid-Season/Alternative Programming)

These shows are coming later, so I will analyze them more in-depth when more information (timeslot, opposing shows, etc.) is attainable and mid-season gets closer.

Are You There, Vodka? It’s Me, Chelsea

Predict: The show just looks…ug. I see cancellation before it finishes its run. Or…I can see NBC using the “Love Bites” strategy (a.k.a. hold it off until summer).

Awake

Predict: I’m excited for this show. Seriously excited. A mix of Inception and Law and Order, already honored by the Critics Choice Awards as one of the eight Most Exciting New Series. My only concern is how they’ll pace the series. The Event and Heroes started off pretty well and veered off when the pacing (and interest) went south. I think the show has a great premise, and I’m calling this NBC’s Best New Series. I just hope the story arc won’t get old fast.

Bent

Predict: Didn’t laugh once in the previews. Not original. Like like Amanda Peet and Jeffery Tampor. But…no.

Fear Factor

Predict: It’ll come back next season. I guarantee it. Ratings won’t matter…that much. Cheap entertainment: the NBC way.

Smash

Predict: Another show among the Top 8 New Series voted on by the Critics Choice Awards. I look forward to how the adult version of “Glee” will work. However, I’m concerned that it will just drag on. Kids can deal with the ridiculous plotlines of Glee. I don’t know if Smash can do the same thing to keep their audience captivated. And even so, what would be the premise of the 2nd season: a whole new play with a whole new cast with a whole new enemy? Meh. However, I see huge success for season one.

The Sing-Off

Predict: A full fall season order against Dancing with the Stars (ABC), Terra Nova (hot new show on FOX), House (FOX), How I Met Your Mother (CBS), Two and A Half Man (CBS), Mike and Molly (CBS), and Gossip Girl (the only time I’ll include CW…because Gossip Girl would take a good portion of that demographic) on a Monday evening? NBC must be crazy. I see an epic meltdown. Unless somebody…anybody can explain why this works.

The Voice

Predict: I’m calling it. The X Factor is FOX’s new American Idol. The Voice will just take over American Idol’s winning time-slot. With The Voice scheduled to run after the Super Bowl, NBC’s time for the Super Bowl could not have come at a better time! The Voice was NBC’s #1 rated show of the year, and the #3 rated show in the country (excluding NBC’s Sunday Night Football). Chances are, they’ll be the 2nd-rated show in the country (behind X Factor) after the Super Bowl. Yes, I predict that The Voice (if they don’t screw it up) will surpass American Idol.

Best Friends Forever, The Firm, Betty White’s Off Their Rockers, Brain Williams Magazine, Fashion Star

Predict: Not enough of a preview to see if this show will be successful or not.

Estimate 2011-12 NBC Fall Rankings

Rank	Show (*: new)
#1	The Office
#2	Parenthood
#3	Parks and Recreation
#4	Law and Order: SVU
#5	Prime Suspects*
#6	The Playboy Club*
#7	30 Rock
#8	Free Agents*
#9	Up All Night*
#10	Community
#11	Whitney*
#12	Harry’s Law
#13	Grimm*
#14	Chuck

 

How They Will Do: The Really Fast Version

I wanted to break down all of the networks shows coming this fall. But I knew some of you wouldn’t care about the details. And for those who do, they are coming. But some might just want to know my thoughts as to which show will be successful.

So I decided that I will break down each timeslot, and rank the shows as to which ones will be popular throughout the fall season. Afterwards, I’ll rank the top 10 shows of the year (networks-wise). If you want more analyzing or wondered why I choose what I did, I will explain soon. For now, here are my quick predictions:

NOTE: Remember that FOX has no original programming after 10pm; CW was not included (since they always get 5th); all 10:00pm shows are an hour-long.

MONDAYS (* indicate new shows this fall) (ABC-A; NBC-N; CBS-C; FOX-F)

Timeslot	First Rank	2nd Rank	3rd Rank	Last Rank
8:00pm	Dancing with the Starts (A)	Terra Nova* (F)	How I Met Your Mother (C)	The Sing-Off (N)
8:30pm	Dancing with the Starts (A)	Terra Nova* (F)	Two Broke Girls* (C)	The Sing-Off (N)
9:00pm	Dancing with the Starts (A)	Two and a Half Man (C)	House (F)	The Sing-Off (N)
9:30pm	Dancing with the Starts (A)	Mike and Molly (C)	House (F)	The Sing-Off (N)
10:00pm	Hawaii Five-O (C)	Castle (A)	The Playboy Club* (N)

TUESDAY

Timeslot	First Rank	2nd Rank	3rd Rank	Last Rank
8:00pm	NCIS (C)	Glee (F)	The Biggest Loser (N)	Last Man Standing* (A)
8:30pm	NCIS (C)	Glee (F)	The Biggest Loser (N)	Man Up* (A)
9:00pm	NCIS: LA (C)	Dancing with the Stars: Results (A)	The Biggest Loser (N)	New Girl* (F)
9:30pm	NCIS: LA (C)	Dancing with the Stars: Results (A)	The Biggest Loser (N)	Raising Hope (F)
10:00pm	Body of Proof (A)	Unforgettable* (C)	Parenthood (N)

WEDNESDAY

Timeslot	First Rank	2nd Rank	3rd Rank	Last Rank
8:00pm	The X Factor* (F)	Survivor (C)	The Middle (A)	Up All Night* (N)
8:30pm	The X Factor* (F)	Survivor (C)	Free Agents* (N)	Suburgatory* (A)
9:00pm	The X Factor* (F)	Criminal Minds (C)	Modern Family (A)	Harry’s Law (N)
9:30pm	Criminal Minds (C)	Happy Endings (A)	Harry’s Law (N)	I Hate My Teenage Daughters* (F)
10:00pm	CSI (C)	Law and Order:SVU (N)	Revenge* (A)

THURSDAY

Timeslot	First Rank	2nd Rank	3rd Rank	Last Rank
8:00pm	The X Factor* (F)	The Big Bang Theory (C)	Charlie’s Angels* (A)	Community (N)
8:30pm	The X Factor* (F)	Charlie’s Angels* (A)	Parks and Recreation (N)	How to Be A Gentleman* (C)
9:00pm	Bones (F)	Grey’s Anatomy (A)	Person of Interest* (F)	The Office (N)
9:30pm	Bones (F)	Grey’s Anatomy (A)	Person of Interest* (F)	Whitney (N)
10:00pm	The Mentalist (C)	Prime Suspects* (N)	Private Practice (A)

FRIDAY

Timeslot	First Rank	2nd Rank	3rd Rank	Last Rank
8:00pm	Extreme Makeover: Home Edition (A)	Kitchen Nightmares (F)	A Gifted Man* (C)	Chuck (N)
9:00pm	CSI: NY (C)	Fringe (F)	Grimm* (N)	Shark Tank (A)
10:00pm	Blue Bloods (C)	Dateline NBC (N)	20/20 (A)

SATURDAY

(NBC has no original programming; ABC will probably always win Saturday nights because of College Football Tonight)

Timeslot	First Rank	Last Rank
8:00pm	Cops (F)	Rules of Engagement (C)
8:30pm	Cops (F)	CBS Comedy (C)
9:00pm	America’s Most Wanted (F)	Crimetime Saturday (C)
10:00pm	48 Hour Mysteries (C)

SUNDAY

(NBC will probably always win Sunday nights because of Sunday Night Football)

Timeslot	First Rank	2nd Rank	Last Rank
7:30pm	The Cleveland Show (F)	60 Minutes (C)	America’s Funniest Home Videos (A)
8:00pm	The Amazing Race (C)	Once Upon A Time* (A)	The Simpsons (F)
8:30pm	The Amazing Race (C)	Once Upon A Time* (A)	Allen Gregory* (F)
9:00pm	Desperate Housewives (A)	The Good Wife (F)	Family Guy (F)
9:30pm	Desperate Housewives (A)	The Good Wife (F)	American Dad (F)
10:00pm	CSI: Miami (C)	Pan Am* (A)

 

The Teen Choice Awards…and why I don’t like it

There are a ton of awards. In my opinion, too many.

It used to be the Academy Awards. And that was it. Nothing more.

Of course it makes sense to have other awards. We do need the Grammys, Emmys, and the Tonys as well. But then, we went crazy.

For movies, you have the Director’s Guild of America Award and the Screen Actors Guild Awards. Television has over 15 different awards at the same time, from the Annie Awards to the Writers Guild of America. Don’t even get me started on the amount of music awards there are.

However, despite my hate for having so many awards shows, I do recognize that tons of people have opinions, and want actors, directors, etc. to know what those opinions are. That’s why we have the people’s choice awards; because we, the people of the United States of America, are the most vocal. We watch these shows and criticize more than any critic, and we enjoy arguing with other people about which show is better. So, of course, I’m okay with people having opinions and having us, America, put our hand in the award-show shuffle.

There have multple people’s choice awards. The ESPYs is an example where the fans choose which athlete wins an ESPY, an award given on ESPN to athletes on their success for that year. However, the major ones for me are the simplest and directed towards the lowest-denominator. There are three major people’s choice awards: The Kids Choice Awards, The Teen Choice Awards, and the People’s Choice Awards.

I like the Kids Choice Awards. Kids love it too. Kids want to vote for and see their favorite shows and actors get put on stage and thank their fans. Kids love having the control, and they vote based on solely on who’s their favorite. Of course, we’ll meet the Justin Bieber’s of our day that will get votes on looks. But for the most part, the Kids are right about which shows are better. When Lizzy McGuire and Even Stevens were very popular, it was in good reason. Not only did kids relate to Hilary Duff’s or Shia LaBeouf’s or Christy Carlson Romano’s character, the shows were nicely produced. They weren’t over cheesy (can’t say the same about the movies though), and Disney hasn’t really produced shows like them since (yeah, yeah; Hannah Montana, That’s So Raven, Wizards of Waverly Place, blah, blah. Honestly, only Hannah Montana was a good production show. Everything else is pretty off). But really, the point is that when kids vote, for the most part, they are also right.

Then the kids get older. They become teens…and then to adults. And we then screw it up.

At least for the People’s Choice Awards, they try to get Queen Latifah to “raise the roof” and make it into a fun night. Ultimately, it really isn’t. But the people still get a good night of who won and who didn’t. At least with the Kids and People’s Choice, the choices are not too predictable.

But the gosh darn teenages. I can’t stand it.

I’ll be honest. I have beef with the Teen Choice Awards. It’s practically identical to the MTV Awards, or at least the exactly same people watch it (Take 2010 and look at the results for both…almost identical). But otherwise, people vote not on who actually did a good job. It’s about the heart-throbs. It’s about the hot guys. It’s about the most talked about people at the time of the show. And I call that fickle voting.

Now, it would not bother me if Twilight was actually an great production. Now, don’t get me wrong. They re-created the novel very well; but it will never reach the production value of Harry Potter. Now some people cringed. But it could be for either side, pro-Harry or pro-Twilight. There’ll be some fighting there. But there’s not even a comparison. In 2010, Harry Potter got nominated for Oscars and Twilight got nominated for Razzies. But teenagers, they don’t care about quality. They care about what Sarah is talking about at the water cooler.

Isn’t that interesting? I mean, we knew kids didn’t care about school, but they also don’t care about quality on television either. Umm….that’ll be an interesting topic for another blog.

Anyways, time and time again, I watch the TCAs and I’m always disappointed with what America spits out. Let’s take 2010 for example. Avatar won the category for Sci-Fi films. Okay, it was deserved. So there are times that America gets it right. But Tina Fey and Ashton Kutcher also won their categories that night. Now, when you hear those names, you automatically think, “Well, they’re funny. Of course they deserve it.” I agree. The TCA isn’t based on performance; it’s based on names, familiarity, likability. NOT whether a performance was good or not. Now, get ready to cringe. Tina Fey and Ashton Kutcher won Best Comedy Actress/Actor that year with movies Date Night and Killers, respectively. In case you still don’t get it, they both tanked in every way. Well, Killers tanked in everyway. Ashton also won an award for his performance on Killers: A Razzie award.

Still not convinced? The Hissy Fit category went to Miley Cyrus (Sean Combs, nominated, should have won). Channing Tadum won Action/Adventure Actor for GI Joe: Rise of Cobra (everyone else on the nomination should have won). Liam Hemsworth won Best Breakout Actor for The Last Song (Seriously? Quinton Aaron, Jesse Eisenburg, Aaron Johnson lost to HIM?). Taylor Swift won Best Breakout Actress for Valentine’s Day (Worst. Acting. Ever.). Nina Dobrev of The Vampire Diaries won Breakout TV Actress over Sarah Hyland of Modern Family (just…no). The Vampire Diaries won for Best Fantasy/Sci-Fi TV Series (in a catergory of Fringe, Lost, and Smallville…really?). Jonas Brothers for Best Comedy Actor (the comedy show Jonas ended that year; Jim Parson and Steve Carell’s shows are still going…so exactly how funny was it?).

If that list doesn’t get you, then here’s the motherload. Megan Fox won Best Thriller Actress . No…not for Transformers. For Jennifer’s Body.

TCA is all about having fun. I get that. But that’s why you have a comedian be your host for the evening. I think that TCA has its place in our culture. They have categories that I would like to see winners in (Hook-up (Music Collaboration), TV Parental Unit, Male-Female Reality Stars, Male-Female TV/Movie Scene Stealer, etc.). But, rightfully so, the TCA hits the demographics it wants: Girls who care only about looks and what’s the trending topics. They don’t care about quality. The 2010 movie that won the Best Movie award for the Academy Awards wasn’t even nominated for a TCA. I’m not saying that TCA should model the Academy. But it should at least nominate legit nominees instead of Twilight-ing every category, especially when a movie nominated the previous year is re-nominated for the new year.

So, the winner for the Worst Awards Show is…The Teen Choice Awards.

Get them a surfboard. I’m sure the quality sucks, but at least it’ll look good on TV.

 

Reactions: Coming Soon

Unfortunately, I was not able to finish my promise of predictions of schedules mainly because of two reasons:

1) The news of what ABC and CBS were going to cancel or bring in was already known before their upfronts; so predictions would have been a bit pointless.

2) Also, honestly, I had other things to do; and I didn’t have time. Predictions take forever.

However, I will analyze the new schedules fairly soon. NBC first, FOX, second, then ABC and CBS will get read.

Quick update on CW: Hellcats is cancelled. My Call: Best. Call. Ever. Don’t need 140 characters to sum that up.

Keep up with me on Twitter: @mediatvref. Check the page tomorrow for NBC.